Forex Global Outlook - by Chris Brueck

EUR/JPY - Follow Up: Head and Shoulders Bottom

2010-04-06T11:31:00.000-07:00

EUR/JPY - Follow Up: Head and Shoulders Bottom
by Chris Brueck - www.GoldCoastAM.com

For traders who missed opportunities to buy on the upside breakout, the EURJPY is presenting another buying opportunity on its first correction since the sustained break above the neckline.

%R indicator is in oversold territory and price action is stalling in a support area 125.00-25 just above the neckline.

On the way up, watch for resistance around 127.75-128.00. A sustained break above the resistance zone should push price action to our minimum target of 130.00-15 in a short amount of time.

Gold Coast Asset Management is a leading investment manager for institutions, individuals and financial intermediaries, worldwide. Investors from hundreds of countries around the world have access to large insurance protection for their margin deposits.

For more information visit: www.GoldCoastAM.com

EUR/JPY - Follow Up: Head and Shoulders Bottom

2010-04-05T06:46:00.000-07:00

EUR/JPY - Follow Up
by Chris Brueck of Gold Coast Asset Management Inc.

EUR/JPY has confirmed it's trend reversal with a sustained break above the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders Pattern that we pointed out last week. The rally is strong and has even broken above our last resistance point of 127.00. Our minimum target for this pair over the next couple weeks will be 130.00-15 area.

Gold Coast Asset Management is a leading investment manager for institutions, individuals and financial intermediaries, worldwide. Investors from hundreds of countries around the world have access to large insurance protection for their margin deposits.

For more information visit: www.GoldCoastAM.com

Euro Rallies Against Yen on EU Contingency Plan for Greece - by Chris Brueck

2010-03-29T01:00:00.000-07:00

March 29, 2010
by Chris Brueck

Euro Event Summary
The Euro is in rally-mode against the Japanese Yen as the EU's has promised a contingency plan to greatly reduce the immediate threat of a Greek default. The plan states that the EU would provide bilateral loans to Greece and that the IMF would assist if there is no other option. However, the plan doesn't state which circumstances must exist in order for aid to be provided. In addition, not every member country has agreed to the assistance, and no interest rate has been determined for these loans. So, these loans still remain theoretical for now.

Technical Analysis - Euro vs Japanese Yen (See Chart)
This pair is pushing to reverse it's previous down-trend. We see strong resistance in the 125.50-75 range. Technically, the reversal could come in the form of a H&S Bottom with the current FX rate testing the neckline.

A sustained break above 125.50-75 range would be enough confirmation for us to target the next major resistance zone of 127.00-127.15. A sustained break above the 127.00-15 resistance zone would confirm us a target to the minimum measured move area of 130.00-15.

Gold Coast Asset Management is a leading investment manager for institutions, individuals and financial intermediaries, worldwide. Investors from hundreds of countries around the world have access to large insurance protection for their margin deposits. For more information visit: www.GoldCoastAM.com

Disclaimer: Trading commodity and foreign exchange derivatives is not suitable for every individual. There is substantial risk of loss trading commodity and foreign exchange derivatives. Investors should carefully consider their investment objectives before investing.

U.S. Dollar - Updated Outlook by Chris Brueck

2010-03-19T16:17:00.000-07:00

U.S. Dollar - Updated Outlook
by Chris Brueck, Gold Coast Asset Management Inc.
www.GoldCoastAM.com

The US Dollar continues to be the focus of speculators, as demand for it is still related to its status as a safe-haven currency. Increasing demand could be seen in the near future if the European Union fails to develop a solid plan to aid Greece as approximately 1-Billion Euro worth of debt will be maturing within the next two months. If the EU cannot develop a realistic plan within the next week, Greece's Prime Minister has warned that he would consider alternative options, such as an IMF loan. In any case, the US Dollar still seems poised for further demand in the near-term.

Gold Coast Asset Management Inc. - New Video - Chris Brueck

2010-03-11T00:33:00.000-08:00

USD and the Greek Debt Crisis - by Chris Brueck

2010-02-24T14:11:00.000-08:00

February 24, 2010
by Chris Brueck of Gold Coast Asset Management Inc.

I believe that the US Dollar will see further support through out 2010. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the central bank will keep interest rates low to ensure the economic recovery. But although the economic rebound currently requires low interest rates, policy makers will need to tighten monetary policy at some point! This already occurred with the Fed's recent quarter-point hike to 0.75%.

For the currency trader, the question is whether the Fed will continue to raise their rates before other central banks around the world. Although Bernanke states that interest rates will need to remain low for an "extended period", I believe that the Fed will raise its rates before other countries, thereby decreasing the rate differential between the US Dollar and higher yielding currencies. So, it is simply a matter of "when".

Since inflation is "likely to remain subdued", I don't see any extraordinary demand for the US Dollar. However, currency values do not exist in a vacuum and are relative to the economic health and monetary outlook of other countries. Hence the name "foreign exchange". So, to further evaluate our outlook for the US Dollar, it is important for us to look at the economic conditions of other countries. The key topic I am watching is the Greek Debt Crisis in the Euro Zone.

Demand for the Euro has dropped mostly due to concerns that Greece will default on its debt. Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, is placing enormous pressure on Greece to pop its ballooning 12.7% deficit down to 3% levels by 2012. The Euro Zone prefers a devalued Euro, as that positively impacts the amount of goods and services that they export. However, they do not like a devalued Euro when its economy is ridden with debt. If Greece's deficit continues to balloon, the European Union may have no choice but to drop them from membership and remove them from the Euro Zone to readopt the Drachma.

Now, we need to take caution here in our forecasts for the Euro and the US Dollar. If Greece loses its membership from the European Union and Euro Zone, currency traders need to position themselves for the potential that international banks and trading institutions may regain their confidence in the Euro Zone. That could prove to be bullish for the Euro and bearish for the US Dollar. However, banks and institutions could also view such an event as further deteriorating the economic health of Europe in general. In such as case, that could prove to be bearish for the Euro and bullish for the US Dollar.

I have a strong feeling that Greece will ultimately default on its debt and lose it EU and EZ membership sometime in the next 12-16 months. However, for now, my outlook for 2010 is that the US Dollar will continue to gain a bit more strength against the Euro, even in light of Bernanke's statements that interest rates should remain low for a while. However, without more demand for the US Dollar, I foresee it ranging between 1.2800 and 1.4500 against the Euro.

Sincerely,

Chris Brueck

Gold Coast Asset Management Inc.

US Dollar Outlook - by Chris Brueck of Gold Coast Asset Management Inc.

2010-01-25T19:20:00.000-08:00

USD OUTLOOK: Bullish
January 25, 2010
by Chris Brueck of Gold Coast Asset Management Inc.

The US Dollar has hit five month highs against the Euro, a one month high against the Canadian Dollar, and multi-week highs against both the Australian and New Zealand dollar.

We anticipate a pull-back in the USD over the next week or so, however we currently remain fundamentally bullish on the USD due to global risk aversion. The following points support our stance:

- China has announced that it intends to cool down its economic growth
- U.S. President Obama is aggressively acting on regulating and de-leveraging risky speculative trading among the U.S.'s largest banks.
- The Euro zone is still facing a debt-crisis in Greece's economy, and potentially that of Spain's.
- Global unemployment is not expected to improve through out 2010

With financial risks and aggressive regulatory reform continuing to loom across the globe, institutional traders and banks may have begun to quickly lock in any profits they realized in 2009. In addition, demand for stocks and commodities appears to be on a decline. And demand for U.S. Bonds could increase on the back of any further signs that there is still too much risk in the global economy.

So, investors who were hoping and praying for a quick global economic recovery in 2009 could be in for a sobering surprise in 2010. Again, our stance is that risk aversion is in full swing and fundamental support for the USD is getting stronger.

The current state of the USD could be overbought and a correction could be imminent. I believe that any correction in the USD should be viewed by investors as an opportunity to get long the USD at a better exchange rate, as we anticipate risk aversion to increase into the US Dollar the rest of the year.

Sincerely,

Chris Brueck
Gold Coast Asset Management Inc.